The MVP award for the World Series, American League Championship Series, and National League Championship Series is supposed to be awarded to the player who contributed the most to their team’s success in the series. It is not traditionally awarded to a player on the team that lost the series, and it is not traditionally awarded to the player considered to be the most skilled. The MVP award in a playoff series typically goes to the player who is considered to have played the most significant role in their team winning the series.
If value is associated with winning, then we need a measure of value that reflects direct contributions to wins. When looking at offensive performance, this measure should give more credit to offense that directly contributed to the win and less credit to offense that contributed less to the win. For example, a hit or bunt that leads to a run in a 1-run victory is more valuable than an RBI hit in a blow-out win or a HR in a blow-out loss. Value does not depend just on the skill displayed or the number of bases achieved, but rather on how well the contribution worked in collaboration with teammates’ contributions to outscore the opponent.
According to this understanding of value, the OSWC statistic is the best measure to use when selecting the MVP of a series. To see why, consider Table 1 that lists the five players with the highest OSWC in the series.
TABLE 1: TOP 5 SERIES OSWC, 2020 WORLD SERIES
| Player | WS OSWC | Gm 1 LA OSWC | Gm 2 TB OSWC | Gm 3 LA OSWC | Gm 4 TB OSWC | Gm 5 LA OSWC | Gm 6 LA OSWC | WS SRC | WS OPS | WS WPA |
| M Betts (LA) | 1.227 | 0.318 | 0 | 0.093 | 0 | 0.150 | 0.667 | 5.33 | 0.898 | -0.01 |
| C Seager (LA) | 0.739 | 0.113 | 0 | 0.060 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.167 | 5.59 | 1.256 | 0.63 |
| M Muncy (LA) | 0.485 | 0.175 | 0. | 0.160 | 0 | 0.150 | 0 | 3.72 | 0.660 | 0.03 |
| B Lowe (TB) | 0.433 | 0 | 0.267 | 0 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 0.944 | 0.15 |
| C Bellinger (LA) | 0.394 | 0.151 | 0 | 0.093 | 0 | 0.150 | 0 | 2.55 | 0.481 | -0.01 |
Betts leads all players with 1.227 OSWC. He made vital offensive contributions in each of the four Dodger victories, and his 1.227 OSWC constitutes a massive 31% of the distributed credit for the four wins, one of the largest World Series OSWC of the last 30 years. A one-ninth, egalitarian share of distributed credit would be 0.444, so in one sense Betts amassed three player’s worth of credit. If the World Series MVP award was to be awarded for offensive value, then Betts was the most deserving player
But why was Seager given the MVP award?
Seager did have the most impressive offensive performance when looking at all games in the series. He was first in OPS (1.296), R (7), and SRC (5.59), was tied for second with Betts in HR (2) behind Arozarena (3), was tied for third in RBI (5) behind co-leaders Lowe and Muncy (6), and was second in WPA (0.63) to TB’s Phillips (0.81).
Yet, the OSWC statistic reveals why Seager’s offensive contributions were less valuable than Betts’s. See Table 2 below. Notice that OSWC is concentrated in the player’s victories, but Seager’s offense was concentrated in the losses. Both of Seager’s HR and the majority of his R and RBI came in the losses, whereas all of Betts’s HR, R, and RBI came in the wins. Indeed, most of Seager’s WPA came in the games that the Dodgers lost, so WPA is clearly not assigning credit for actual wins. If the MVP is to be awarded to the player who produced the most offense in the series, then Seager would be the clear choice because he had the highest SRC. But if the MVP is to be awarded to the player whose offense contributed most to winning — that is, the player whose offense was most valuable — as is commonly understood, then Betts is more deserving. Both Seager and Betts made significant offensive contributions in all of the Dodgers four victories, but Betts’s contributions were larger because they were more consequential.
TABLE 2: PERFORMANCE BY BETTS AND SEAGER IN 2020 WORLD SERIES, WINS AND LOSSES
| Player | 4 Dodger Wins OPS | 4 Dodger Wins WPA | 4 Dodger Wins OSWC | 2 Dodger Losses OPS | 2 Dodger Losses WPA | 2 Dodger Losses OSWC |
| Betts | 1.254 | 0.23 | 1.227 | 0.111 | -0.24 | 0 |
| Seager | 0.682 | 0.13 | 0.739 | 2.000 | 0.50 | 0 |
It appears that the MVP selectors awarded Seager the MVP because his overall offensive performance was more visible than Betts’s even though Betts’s overall offensive performance was more valuable. Seager’s outstanding offensive performance is easily seen in the standard offensive measures, but Betts’s offensive win contributions are not. We need a measure like OSWC to reveal Betts’s value. Seager had a terrific series and deserves praise for his play, but Betts was the more valuable player in the series. Having the OSWC statistic will help MVP selectors make more informed decisions in the future.
Notes: This page has been updated with version 2023.1 calculations.