Introduction
Giancarlo Stanton of the New York Yankees won the 2024 American League Championship Series (ALCS) in his team’s series victory over the Cleveland Guardians. With his 4 HR, he definitely lived up to his reputation as the hardest-hitting slugger in Major League Baseball while providing memorable moments for those watching the games. His selection as MVP for the series was not a surprise.
But Juan Soto’s contributions to the Yankees, though slightly less eye-popping, actually contributed more to the Yankees winning the series when value is measured by OSWC, the best measure of value when identifying the offensive MVP. With the 2024 ALCS MVP award going to Stanton instead of Soto, that means that both the ALCS MVP Award and the NLCS MVP Award given to Tommy Edman went to players who did not actually provide the most offensive value on their respective teams.
The 2024 ALCS at a Glance
Key offensive statistics for the New York Yankees are provided in Table 1. Stanton led all Yankees with 4 HR and 7 RBI. He also was tied with three other Yankees for the team lead with 5 R. Indeed, he was the most productive Yankee in terms of run production with his team-leading 6.40 SRC. He was second to Soto in OPS (1.222 vs 1.373) and WPA (0.60 to 0.81), indicating that he was a skilled offensive performer as well as a high-leverage offensive performer.
When it comes to identifying who provided the most offensive value, however, Stanton falls short of Soto. Soto’s 1.04 OSWC surpasses Stanton’s 0.89 OSWC by a meaningful amount. By the statistics, we must conclude that Soto was the most skilled offensive player (1st in OPS), the highest-leverage batter (1st in WPA), and ultimately the most valuable contributor (1st in OSWC). Stanton’s only claim is as the most productive (1st in SRC).
Soto’s value is seen in his across-the-board value. Stanton had higher OSWC than Soto in only game 1. Although they provided the same value in game 4, Soto had strictly higher OSWC in games 2 and 5. In fact, Soto provided non-zero OSWC in all four Yankee wins while Stanton provided offensive value in only three of the four wins. By the numbers, Soto was the offensive MVP.
Evaluating Stanton’s Case for MVP
As the Yankees’ designated hitter for the entire series, Stanton’s case for MVP rests solely on his offensive performance, and the best argument on his behalf is his run production. As shown above, Soto actually bested Stanton in skill (OPS) and leverage hitting (WPA), so Stanton’s only edge over Soto in the series is overall run production (SRC and RBI).
However, one of the arguments in favor of using OSWC over other measures of run production such as SRC or runs or RBI is that OSWC accounts for how well the player’s run contributions help their team actually win. In other words, it is not overall run production that produces wins but rather how one’s run contributions are sequenced with their teammates to produce wins.
Just as how a player’s hits are sequenced with their teammates’ hits affects the actual run productiveness of that player’s hits, so too does how the run contribution of that player is sequenced with their teammates’ run contributions affect the win value of that run contribution. In other words, actually winning in baseball is about teammates sequencing their run contributions in a timely way.
A sacrifice bunt that leads to a score is actually valuable for run production that a player who doubled to lead off an inning but was stranded. Similarly, a player’s run contribution that is sequenced effectively with their teammates to produce a win is more productive for a win than a run contribution in a loss. OSWC provides a measure of this kind of win value, and that makes it the kind of value that we should pay attention to when selecting the playoff series MVP.
Stanton edges Soto in run production in the series because of his performance in the Yankees’ game 3 loss, the Yankees only loss in the series. Stanton recorded 1.67 SRC in that game to Soto’s 0.67. That means that 1.67 of Stanton’s SRC was not sequenced well with his team, while only 0.67 of Soto’s SRC was not sequenced well with.
At the same time, Soto’s run contributions in the other games outclassed Stanton’s. Soto’s run contributions were just more valuable in terms of wins even though Stanton produced more runs overall.
Conclusion
Juan Soto should have been selected as the 2024 ALCS MVP. He was the most valuable offensive performer because he sequenced his run contributions better than any other Yankee to help the team win the series.
[Note: SRC and OSWC used in this article were from hand-coded play-by-play rather than the machine learning. The automated machine-learning values may change slightly.]